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    鋼市:回顧2018 展望2019
    發布日期:2018-12-22       點擊數:196       

      ? 2018年,國內鋼材重要消費市場、集散地之一的華東地區鋼材市場呈現穩中向好的運行態勢,鋼鐵企業收益頗豐,鋼貿企業經營尚可。各方面對即將到來的2019年鋼市行情表示期待,但不盲目樂觀,對穩中有變的運行態勢,似乎已有心理準備。
      2018年“三高兩小”
      一些鋼材貿易經營者感到,2018年華東地區鋼材市場一個明顯的特點,就是“三高兩低”。
      “三高”表現在:一是鋼鐵產量高。包括華東地區鋼鐵企業在內,2018年的鋼產量創新高,其主要原因是鋼鐵企業環保水平明顯提高,受環保限產影響強度有所減弱。一大批環保達標的大型鋼鐵企業在高鋼價、高盈利的刺激下,滿負荷生產。二是鋼材價格高。如2018年9月19日,華東某鋼廠產直徑8毫米~直徑12毫米盤螺(HRB400)價格攀升到4920元/噸,處于近年來的新高。三是鋼企效益高。2018年是近20年來鋼廠效益最好的一年。如馬鋼預計全年銷售鋼材1835萬噸,開發銷售新產品65萬噸,實現了質量與效益大幅提升。
      “兩小”即南北鋼材價差偏小,熱軋卷板與螺紋鋼的價差偏小。2018年,南北方鋼材市場價差已不明顯,大都處于偏小的水平。如2018年12月14日,上海市場上直徑50毫米40Cr合結鋼價格為4280元/噸,而天津市場的價格為4300元/噸,只相差20元/噸。這是因為2018年北方地區鋼鐵企業受環保限產的影響大于華東等南方地區;同時,當地建筑業、制造業亦受到環保限產或錯峰生產的影響,鋼材市場的供給和需求雙下降,北方鋼材價格優勢不再顯現,以往越靠近生產地域的鋼價越低的現象不再凸顯。由此,2018年“北材南下”的力度沒有往年大,使華東地區鋼材庫存偏低,銷售壓力不大,市場平穩向好運行。
      2018年,華東地區鋼材市場“長強板弱”現象依然存在,但逐漸淡化,不很明顯,價格差異收縮,處于低位。在上海市場,螺紋鋼價格一度高于熱軋卷價格。這是因為熱軋卷市場供給過剩,而螺紋鋼等建筑鋼材在“基建補短板”政策導向下,需求得以釋放,價格攀升。
      不過,“長強板弱”現象在2018年12月份已不明顯。因為進入冬季之后,建筑工程施工受到天氣的影響,加上臨近年末,工程施工進入收尾階段,對建筑鋼材需求減少,價格震蕩下行,與熱軋卷價格逐漸接近。
      在采訪中,一些鋼貿公司的業務員向《中國冶金報》記者介紹,2018年鋼材市場穩中向好主要得益于鋼鐵行業的供給側結構性改革。此外,各地加大環保整治力度。如在江蘇地區鋼鐵企業環保限產的不少,2018年7月份,徐州有5家鋼廠處于停產狀態;常州地區鋼鐵企業嚴格執行50%限產政策;蘇州為了配合環保檢查,有2座小高爐已經停產;鎮江地區鋼廠停產整頓,一度使當地的鋼材市場供需呈現緊平衡。
      2019年穩中有變,市場形勢謹慎樂觀
      一些鋼貿商認為,2019年華東地區鋼材市場行情將穩中有變,主要體現在供給和需求的變化上。
      從需求端來看,就經濟形勢而言,經濟下行壓力增大;且從國家財政政策導向看,不再總是“托底”思維,而更強調補短板、補弱項。研究表明,近兩年來,中國基建投資已經出現區域下沉、領域優化的特點。區域下沉是從大城市向小城市甚至縣城發展、從發達地區向落后地區發展;領域優化是從傳統領域向環保等方向發展。這對屬于經濟發達的華東地區而言,不能走過度依賴投資的老路,鋼材需求強度或將有所減弱。
      據調研預測,2019年國內的鋼材需求量為8億噸,同比下降2.4%;那么2019年華東地區的鋼材需求亦將“有減難增”。這在很大程度上決定了鋼材市場價格“穩中有變”。
      從供給端來看,也存在諸多變數。華東地區是國內鋼材產量增加的地區之一,從國家統計局發布的2018年前11個月鋼材產量來看,華北地區和華東地區的鋼產量名列前茅,兩大區域約占中國總產量的2/3,山東地區為國內鋼產量第三大省。近年來,江蘇地區鋼鐵產能淘汰力度在持續加大,但距離“十三五”國家要求化解過剩產能1750萬噸的目標,尚有近600萬噸缺口,疊加中頻爐、“地條鋼”出清,預計2019年江蘇地區的長材供需格局將偏緊。
      不過,華東地區通過產能置換,電爐鋼產能有所增加。據調研的100多家擁有電爐的鋼鐵企業情況看,預估全國電爐產能大約在1.4億噸,主要集中在華東的江蘇、山東、福建地區和西南地區這些廢鋼資源或電力資源較為豐富的區域。2019年,隨著新增的電爐鋼產能釋放,華東地區鋼材市場供給也將由此發生變化。
      再有,華東地區鋼材出口狀況的變化,也將波及2019年華東地區鋼材市場。華東地區是國內鋼材出口量較大的地區。統計顯示,我國鋼材出口量居前10位的省市主要集中在華北地區和華東地區,其中江蘇、山東、上海、浙江、安徽等地的鋼材出口量較大。然而,近年來我國鋼材出口面臨的形勢嚴峻而復雜,鋼材出口量持續下降。2019年,我國鋼材出口仍面臨較大壓力;加上我國鋼材的一些出口地,如美國、日本等國家和歐元區、東盟地區經濟增速下調,鋼材需求減少,亦不利于我國鋼材的出口。
      從需求端來看,同樣存在一些變數。此外,需關注環保因素制約下游用鋼行業對鋼材需求的增長。2018年,國務院印發的《打贏藍天保衛戰三年行動計劃》,將汾渭平原及長三角地區納入停限產范圍。此舉在縮減鋼廠產能的同時,對下游房地產及基建的開展產生了一定程度的抑制。預估2019年華東地區建筑、能源、汽車等行業用鋼需求將小幅下降。
      不過,一些鋼貿商和業內人士認為,2019年華東地區的鋼材需求不會明顯減少。浙江富昌鋼鐵物資有限公司總經理陸掌富認為:“2019年,華東地區鋼材市場需求不會太差。如杭州地區的重大建設工程不少,鋼材的需求量也不會少。”
      業內人士分析認為,國家發改委、交通部等部委正在編制長江三角洲區域一體化發展規劃綱要、長江三角洲區域交通一體化發展相關規劃、粵港澳大灣區基礎設施互聯互通專項規劃等。上海、江蘇、浙江、安徽、廣東等地也紛紛籌劃出臺一系列對接規劃和政策。長江經濟帶綜合立體交通走廊建設工程等多個重大工程加速推進。這可是以“萬億元”計量的投資規模,為拉動鋼材需求注入強勁的動力。何況,華東地區作為中國經濟命脈,基礎設施建設及房屋建設項目的開展在全國范圍來看也具有很強的領先性,鋼材需求量也十分巨大。如目前浙江省開展大量基建項目,包括舟山附近島嶼間跨海大橋、省內城際鐵路、西復線繞城公路、城市地鐵等項目。《江蘇省沿江城市群城際軌道交通網建設規劃(2018-2025)》也正在報批評估中。山東省濟南市共安排240個重點建設項目和80個預備項目,2019年計劃投資2788億元。
      隨著華東地區一大批重大基礎設施建設工程的集中開工,2019年華東地區鋼材市場需求不會明顯減少,成為支撐鋼價企穩的內在動力。
    656彩票

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